Just a few months into 2014, and trends for business and economic forecasts for the UK start to emerge. Surprising growth figures for January 2014 show the long anticipated recovery “green shoots” promised by the Chancellor of the Exchequer.

There certainly seems to be a methodology for business and economic forecasts in the UK, revolving around an intense battleground, featuring the UK government Department for Business and the Treasury spokespersons. A hallmark of this government under coalition, in one corner, valiant Liberal Democrat Vince Cable, backs all things to do with business. On the other side of the same ring, Chancellor George Osborne hammers home a staunchly conservative, with a small ‘c’, approach to an austerity vision he not only pioneered in the UK, but sold to the rest of Europe.

The word ‘austerity’ caught on like the battle cry of an ancient Celtic warrior in 2013. What, politically, was so out of fashion, now seems the accepted call-to-arms of the international economic community. We are a long way from Milton Friedman’s lasseiz-fare capitalism, sailing a course for the unknown. This is what makes business and economics forecasts for the UK in 2014 a little hard to predict, but incredibly important to watch and take note of.

One ancient British obsession, the weather, will have an impact on many forecasts for 2014. Unprecedented flooding reminds us all that you are ‘only as good as’ your profits last year. Insurance companies are sure to be downsizing float capital in preparation for payouts to the water-stricken victims of Somerset and beyond.

Leading supermarkets stand poised to enter the financial services industry in greater volume, and with such diversified cash flow bases, could be in a better position than 2013 to make inroads into consumer markets.

With immigration higher than expected, (and indeed, than ever) in 2014, the flow of European workers seeking new prosperity in the UK looks like continuing to flow for a while. This will ensure the liquidity of labour market capital for a few years ahead; so don’t expect major ups or downs in the employment figures for 2014.

There are rumblings about inflation rising, and while it is actually rising for supermarket consumers, for those invested in the share-market, returns are averaging 10% year-on-year.

Fortunately for everyone concerned, while not as robust as many would prefer and as government forcasts have in some cases predicted, business and economic forecasts for the United Kingdom remain extremely stable.