How Is The UK Economy Doing Post EU Referendum?
The effects of the EU referendum are the most widely debated topic in social and economic circles across the UK. So far, there is a lack of unanimity regarding the magnitude of this development, since conflicting reports emerge depending of which figures are being analysed. To assess the impact of the referendum thus far, we examine several individual indicators linked to the performance of the economy, based on data collected by the Office for National Statistics.
- On the whole, the UK’s economy grew by 2 per cent in 2016, mainly thanks to a resilient manufacturing sector that compensated for a weakened retail sector.
- The value of pound sterling experienced a sharp drop: three months after the referendum it was 20 per cent lower on a year-on-year basis.
- Linked to devaluation of the pound was an increase in the Consumer Prices Index, along with a rise in inflation and in the price of imports due to unfavourable currency exchange rates. Nevertheless, a PwC report affirmed that consumer spending has not been as negatively affected by the Brexit vote as it was initially predicted.
- On the brighter side, the drop in value of the pound had a positive effect on the export sector, which accounts for a significant part of the country’s overall economic activity. Barely two months after the referendum, manufacturing output growth reached its highest level since 2014, and some suggest that the fall in sterling value is the main reason behind this spike.
- A modest increase in GDP (2 per cent higher than in 2015). Short-term prospects in this respect will depend on the performance of the services sector.
- A minor increase (0.8 per cent) in the Index of Services during the quarter that followed the referendum. This is a positive figure considering the connection between this indicator, the services industry, and the overall economy. Read more »
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